How five Giants spring stats could impact the 2021 season
Spring training stats should generally be taken with a huge grain of salt, and that's even more important this year, with teams able to "roll over" innings and starting pitchers coming in and out of games repeatedly to protect their arms while they get their work in. Plus, as manager Gabe Kapler pointed out after Tuesday's five-homer performance in windy Goodyear, the ball absolutely flies in Arizona, skewing stats and perceptions.There still are things you can take from the games, though. Logan Webb's spring performance, for instance, has proven that his improved changeup might lead to a breakthrough. Mauricio Dubon's spring appears to just be building off his strong second half in 2020.There are some stats that matter, and many that stick out this time of year. Here are five from the first 22 Cactus League games, with some thoughts on whether you should buy them or toss them aside with Opening Day approaching.
There are a few different issues at play here for the starting corner infielders. Belt was behind coming into camp after offseason heel surgery and then came down with mononucleosis.
Longoria has four homers and two doubles in 19 at-bats, but he hasn't played third yet because of plantar fasciitis.
Both missed Opening Day last year, and Belt seems likely to miss the first few games of this season. But he's not all that concerned, saying in a recent phone conversation that his confidence is sky-high after a career year in 2020 and the heel is doing great.
"I'm recovering really well from foot surgery," he said. "I mean, really well. It's not going to be a problem at all once we get into the season. I'm very confident in that."
That's a good sign for the Giants, who expect to have Belt make his spring debut this week.
Longoria's injury might actually be the greater concern, as it's one that can be extremely painful and won't go away once the season starts. Without the DH spot, that could be an ongoing problem for the Giants.
Look, there's a reason they call him Donnie Barrels. Solano broke out with a .330 average in 2019, hit .320 last spring, and then .326 during the shortened season, winning his first Silver Slugger Award. He's 13-for-28 at the plate this spring with two homers, two doubles and just one strikeout.
All the man does is hit, and there's no reason to think he'll stop. The Giants have Tommy La Stella now, but they'll still find plenty of at-bats for Solano, and they can pick their matchups a bit better than they did last year.
Solano is in his final year before free agency, just lost an arbitration case, and has a chance to set himself up for a life-changing short-term contract somewhere at the age of 33. He should be motivated, and he looks like someone who can compete for a batting title this season. The Giants will again rely on him.
"He can flat-out hit. He can hit righties and he can hit lefties," Kapler said. "We don't view Solano as a platoon bat, although you might see him get his days off more frequently against right-handed pitching than against lefties."
This is one that's pretty familiar to this group. The Giants had 21 errors in their first 18 games last year, which led the league and nearly derailed their entire season. Once they got Longoria and Belt back in the everyday lineup and stopped platooning Brandon Crawford, a lot of the issues went away, which is why the 22 errors in 22 games thus far aren't wildly concerning.
Still, the play has generally been sloppy, enough so that Kapler has called it out a few times in his postgame Zoom sessions. He referred to it as "just not good enough" recently and also said "there's some urgency" with Opening Day approaching.
"We have to do a better job on defense," he said, "Both to record outs and to protect our pitchers. We just haven't been good."
This is one that'll be worth watching all season. The backup options to Longoria simply aren't good defensively, and second base will be below-average on a nightly basis. Anyone but Dubon puts the Giants below average in center, too, and it'll get really iffy defensively if Crawford ever misses extended time. The Giants are hoping their bats can outhit their mistakes, but they'll still need to limit the mistakes and missed opportunities to record easy outs.
Only the young and athletic Seattle Mariners have stolen more bases this spring than the Giants, who will have one of the oldest and slowest Opening Day rosters in the big leagues. That hasn't kept them from putting an emphasis on swiping bags at a high rate this spring.
"One thing that we learned last year is that we had a few opportunities -- not a lot, but a couple -- that we think we could have capitalized on but didn't," Kapler said. "The goal here is not to be the most aggressive team in baseball stealing bases, the goal is to practice enough where we feel confident when the situation arises and we need to take advantage of a moment. The only way to do that is to push the boundaries in spring training."
This is a stat that won't carry over. The Giants stole 19 bases in 60 games last season, and they're not built to run -- on the projected roster, only Austin Slater, Dubon and Mike Yastrzemski rank above-average by sprint speed, and all are just a tick above. There's no doubt the Giants can run the bases better, though -- that's a big emphasis for Dubon -- so perhaps all this spring work will lead to some improvement.
This is an extremely small sample -- 26 1/3 total innings -- and there are reasons to both throw it out and be slightly concerned.
Five of the runs belong to Kevin Gausman, who has pitched just eight innings in games, and the staff feels he's throwing the ball better than he ever has. Johnny Cueto has seen a small uptick in velocity, and Aaron Sanchez said he feels great after his first outing, when he gave up three earned in 2 1/3.
At the same time, it's a legit concern that Alex Wood already has needed a minor procedure on his back, which cost him most of the 2019 season. Cueto is a veteran and getting his work in, but he's also coming off a year in which he had the worst ERA in the NL, and he has allowed 12 hits and walked four in 7 1/3 innings.
Wood has pitched just three innings, but Webb looks poised to very capably fill in. The rotation as a whole, though, remains a bit of a wild card. The Giants came in facing questions about a group filled with pitchers coming off injuries or ineffectiveness, and right now it's hard to feel those have been answered.
