On this week’s Giants Talk, Alex Pavlovic and Cole Kuiper break down which right-handed power bats they have on their wish lists for the Giants to sign.
The Giants know they have the core of a solid lineup intact.
Brandon Crawford is coming off an MVP-type season and Brandon Belt returns after his best year. Last year's breakout star, LaMonte Wade Jr., will either be at the top of the lineup or in the heart of it, and the same could hold true for the previous breakout, Mike Yastrzemski. The Giants are hopeful that Tommy La Stella and Evan Longoria remain healthy and find their old production, and they should again have a deep bench.
As you go through all those names, though, a trend emerges. Without Buster Posey, Kris Bryant and Donovan Solano, it's pretty clear that the players Gabe Kapler can trust the most heading into the season almost all bat from the left side. The front office has a roster hole to fill, and there are plenty of big-name options available.
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We talked about all of the top choices on this week's Giants Talk, and over the next few days I'll break them all down a bit further. There's an obvious place to start, as Bryant stands as by far the biggest move of the Zaidi-Harris Era, and he remains on the market.
Will the Giants bring him back? Should they even want to? Let's dive in ...
Why He's the Right Fit
The easiest way to explain how Bryant fits the Giants is simply to let Zaidi do it. Here's what he said after acquiring Bryant at the trade deadline for a couple of prospects:
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"We just feel like he's the perfect fit for our roster, getting another middle-of-the-order right-handed bat, and not just a guy who can move around but actually likes moving around on the field. Obviously he kind of fits the ethos of our roster really well."
After 51 games (plus a playoff series) together, all of those needs are still there, and the lineup-balance issue is more glaring now that Posey is retired. Remember, Bryant and Posey hit second and fourth when the Giants went up against Julio Urias in Game 2 of the NLDS.
The team that loves flexibility also isn't actually all that flexible right now. Bryant played all three outfield positions and third base after the trade and started a game at first in the NLDS. The Giants even got him regular pre-game work at second base late in the season, although they never played that card in a game. The current roster would force Kapler to play things pretty straight-up. The most versatile piece he has at the moment is Thairo Estrada, who projects as a backup.
Bryant still fits the ethos of the roster, and he seemed to be a great fit in the clubhouse. It was closed to the media all year, but at least publicly, Bryant seemed to love his time in San Francisco.
Bryant's numbers were down after the trade, but he still was 13 points better than league average by wrC+. He finished the year with a .265/.353/.481 slash line for the Cubs and Giants, hitting 25 homers in 144 games. In the NLDS, a series that was largely decided by the rivals' biggest stars, Bryant was right at home. He had three multi-hit games, hit a homer in Game 1, and finished 8-for-17 at a time when most of the lineup massively struggled.
Bryant turned 30 earlier this month, so a long-term deal should mostly include his prime years and he should still be a key contributor when Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos and the rest are taking the Giants into their future.
There's one other aspect here, although it's one the front office probably doesn't care for too much. This is a big market but a crowded one, with the Warriors back to full strength and the 49ers thriving. The Giants have built around depth, but a lot of fans are getting a bit tired of watching the biggest names sign elsewhere every winter. Bryant is one of the game's biggest stars, and it was a genuinely huge deal when he walked into Oracle Park for the first time. At some point the Giants are going to need to replicate that with Bryant or someone similar, or else the grumbling about being cheap is going to get louder and louder.
Why He Might Not Fit
Bryant was an above-average player after the trade, but that's become the norm in San Francisco under Zaidi, Harris and Kapler. Darin Ruf's wRC+ of 144 dwarfed Bryant's, and he would be in line for a lot of the at-bats the Giants need to make up. Estrada was at 119 and Wilmer Flores was at 113, so the Giants can easily make the argument that they can replace Bryant's production with guys already on the roster.
Bryant had a good year overall, but his OPS in orange and black was just .788. The seven homers in two months would have stood out a lot more a couple of years ago, but just about everyone Kapler plugs in there these days knocks them out at a similar -- or higher -- rate.
Bryant got off to a memorable start in orange and black but hit just one homer in September and struggled to come through in some big spots before the Giants clinched the division. When Ruf returned from an oblique strain during the final week of the season, there were people on the staff who felt the Giants were strongest with Evan Longoria and Ruf -- not Bryant -- in the lineup.
The Giants have shown an ability to find hitters like Ruf, Yastrzemski and Wade Jr., a huge reason they haven't felt the need to dip into the market for stars. And then there's the defensive side of things.
Yes, Bryant is extremely versatile, but that's not quite as valuable when you struggle with the glove. The metrics had Bryant below average wherever the Giants put him and the eye test matched that. Bryant had some trouble with his throws at third base and never looked comfortable dealing with Triples Alley as an outfielder. A full spring with Kai Correa would help, but it's also reasonable to expect the defense to tail off as he gets older.
The Contract Projections
ESPN projected Bryant to get a five-year deal worth $90 million and MLB Trade Rumors projected six years and $160 million. There's a huge gap there, but either figure might be higher than the Giants' valuation. At his end-of-season press conference, Zaidi splashed some cold water on reunion talks, saying the blockbuster deal was an all-in move for the 107-win team.
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"For us, the move at the deadline was really about pushing chips in with this team, which we thought was a really special team and had a chance to do some special things and did," Zaidi said. "But we recognize that he's a superstar talent and it's going to be a really competitive market for his services. I'm sure we'll have conversations there, but he's going to have a long line of suitors, so we'll just have to see how that develops."
When free agency resumes, Bryant -- who is represented by Scott Boras -- should still have a pretty long line of suitors. The up-and-coming Mariners make a ton of sense and the Mets -- who had interest in July -- could still be lurking, along with others like the Padres and Phillies, who are led by Bryant's longtime friend Bryce Harper.
As a player, Bryant still makes sense for the Giants, but this is not a front office that has ever overpaid in free agency, so the price would probably have to drop for the Giants to end up with Bryant for the second time in under a year.
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