SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants spent months preparing to pursue Aaron Judge during the 2022 MLB offseason and put together a detailed plan for his visit to San Francisco just before Thanksgiving. When they had to shift to Carlos Correa after Judge returned to the New York Yankees, they spent significantly less time trying to impress the free agent.
Some team employees who had been involved in the Judge chase didn't even know Correa was the organization's new top target until word of an agreement -- pending that physical, of course -- leaked on social media.
That offseason taught the Giants a lot of lessons, including an obvious one: When it comes to the very top free agents, the team that offers the biggest contract almost always wins.
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There are exceptions, and Judge was one of them. He used the Giants and then the San Diego Padres to get what he wanted from the Yankees, and then he returned to the only team he has ever known. This season, Judge teamed up with Juan Soto to lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years, and as Soto prepares to take his turn as the top free agent on the market, the Giants need to remember that lesson from 2022.
Correa agreed to hit at Oracle Park because the Giants offered him by far the largest deal. Sure, the shortstop would have stood on the podium and talked about how much he appreciated the history of the franchise, the fan base and the commitment to winning, but the truth would have been that he was a Giant because they committed to paying him $350 million.
Soto figures to handle his own free agency much in the same way. This isn't Judge and this isn't Shohei Ohtani presenting three teams with the same unique terms but ultimately sticking with his plan to be a Los Angeles Dodger. Executives around the league believe Soto will take the largest deal, period, and he did nothing to change that thinking after the Yankees lost the World Series.
Asked multiple times that night about staying in New York, Soto kept on message, saying he was looking forward to free agency and would be open to all 30 teams. At the General Manager meetings on Wednesday, agent Scott Boras made it clear that their side is aiming as high as possible, comparing his client to the Mona Lisa.
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"He has literally 15 years more of his prime to offer," Boras told reporters in San Antonio.
That makes the start of free agency actually relatively straightforward for the Giants and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.
The first thing they have to do this offseason is decide whether they're in or they're out. Are they willing to make an offer well north of $500 million early in the process? Are they going to hang around when Soto and Boras start talking about $600 million or $700 million, which Ohtani got with nearly all of it being deferred?
Are they willing to go head-to-head with not just the Yankees, but also Steve Cohen and the New York Mets? Are they willing to outbid Cohen if that's what it takes? Are they willing to stomach getting a little bit crazy to land a future Hall of Famer?
Only a few people know those answers, led by the new man in charge. Posey sits in on not only daily meetings about the roster, but also board meetings to handle the Giants' finances and big-picture plans.
If San Francisco is willing to be in until the end and offer the largest contract, then they're once again going to spend a winter right in the middle of the rumor mill, and they should be aggressive from the start. When the prior regime missed out on Bryce Harper, one big issue was how late Farhan Zaidi joined the bidding. The feeling from Harper's camp was that the Giants were always one step behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
If the Giants don't want to be out in front with Soto, they should probably pivot quickly. There's too much to be done with this roster to spend weeks waiting around for a superstar who will come to San Francisco only if the contract offer is larger than all of the others.
As the Giants waited for Judge to make a decision two years ago, they agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Mitch Haniger, but that was a very different situation. Haniger was guaranteed just $43.5 million, a deal that could very easily fit into the payroll even if Judge later said yes.
If the Giants are not fully committed to winning the Soto bidding, they run the risk of missing out on other ways to upgrade the roster. The biggest deal in franchise history remains the one that Posey signed in 2012, and it's hard to picture an organization with that track record signing a Soto AND a Corbin Burnes, or a Blake Snell, or a Willy Adames. If someone repeats the Dodgers' 2023 offseason -- one billion on two players -- the overwhelming odds are that it will be Cohen.
The Giants need Soto for a lot of reasons, both on and off the field, but they have other holes, too. They could use a high-end starter now that Snell has opted out. They need a shortstop who can slide Tyler Fitzgerald over to second and make the infield a strength. They could probably use some more power at first base as they wait for Bryce Eldridge to arrive. If Soto is not wearing orange and black, they will need someone else to provide more production for the outfield.
In 2022, after Judge said no and the Giants backed away from Correa, they made a late pivot to Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. Throw in Haniger, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea and it ended up being a very expensive offseason, one without a star, and one that was a disaster.
Last year, the Giants responded to the Ohtani and Yamamoto disappointment by signing Jung Hoo Lee and then deciding to be patient. It was a logical plan and they ended up with Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Snell in the spring, but they certainly had regrets about not putting the puzzle pieces in place a couple of months earlier.
This time around, Posey has the financial flexibility to be aggressive and get some heavy lifting done early, but first, he has to make that all-important decision.
The Giants have finished second too many times over the last decade. Are they willing to write down a number that guarantees it won't happen again? Because if they're not, they should make that decision now and spend the next month figuring out an alternate way to add significant pieces to the roster as other big market teams wait to see where the Soto bidding war goes.