Giants offseason preview: Is there enough pitching depth if Snell walks?

SAN FRANCISCO -- The quote was a juicy one, so much so that it ended up being brought up often as the Giants fell out of the race in the second half. 

"It's been a long road to get our rotation to the place it's in now, and we feel like we have the best rotation in baseball," Farhan Zaidi said. "When you have starting pitching like that, it can get you on a roll."

The former president of baseball operations made his share of mistakes, but he really shouldn't regret that optimism. It was bold, but the Giants very easily could have lived up to that standard.

As the Giants hoped, Blake Snell was the most dominant pitcher in baseball after that post-deadline press conference. Logan Webb wasn't always at his best this season, but he's still the game's most reliable innings-eater and should again finish high in Cy Young voting. At the time of Zaidi's statement, Robbie Ray was a few days removed from a spectacular debut at Dodger Stadium during which he threw five no-hit innings against the team that would go on to win the pennant. The final two spots belonged to promising rookies Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong.

There were reasons to believe the Giants really could have the best rotation in baseball down the stretch, but the group ranked 13th with a 4.02 ERA after the trade deadline. The Giants never got on that roll, and that led to Buster Posey taking over a day after the final game of the season. 

Posey knows better than just about anyone alive that a middle-of-the-pack rotation won't work in San Francisco. The Giants have never been a draw for marquee hitters, but with Posey behind the plate, they rode strong pitching to three titles. 

That's the way at Oracle Park. As the first moves of the offseason quickly approach, here's how the Giants are set up with their starting pitching, and what could be ahead:

On the 40-man: 

Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Trevor McDonald, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp, Blake Snell, Kai-Wei Teng, Logan Webb, Keaton Winn.

What Went Right

While the rotation ranked 18th overall in ERA (4.22), the group was second in the NL and fifth in the majors in FIP (3.84), which strips out a lot of the noise. The best thing that happened for the rotation in 2024 had nothing to do with stats, though.

The 2025-and-beyond Giants will benefit from the injuries and ineffectiveness that led to Birdsong, Roupp, Black, McDonald and others getting their feet wet. The Giants were second in the big leagues in innings thrown by rookies and their future rotations could be heavily made up of pitchers who learned at the big league level in 2024. 

Birdsong showed electric stuff and ranked seventh in the big leagues in K/9 among starters with at least 70 innings. On July 21 he set a franchise record by striking out 12 at Coors Field and he finished his year by joining Snell and Jason Schmidt as the only Giants pitchers in the divisional era to strike out 10 in the first four innings of a start. 

Roupp won a job with a surprisingly strong spring and posted a 3.58 ERA while pitching primarily as a reliever. He had three strong starts in September before a rough one in his final appearance. 

The Giants spent years drafting young pitching, with Harrison leading the group, and it all started to fall into place this past season.

What Went Wrong

Even with Webb leading the NL in innings for a second straight year, the Giants ranked 29th at 778 2/3. Their Opening Day starter made up 26 percent of the rotation's workload and was the only Giant to reach 125 innings. The game has changed, but still, that's unacceptable. 

Some of it was by design, as the staff planned to lean heavily on Ray (Tommy John rehab) and Hicks (who was transitioning from relieving), but a lot of their key pieces fell short of workload expectations. Injuries hampered Snell and Harrison, in particular. 

The biggest problem in 2024, though, was simply underperformance from veterans. Snell was spectacular over the final three months, but his early struggles put the team in a hole and contributed to a lackluster first half overall. Ray had a 5.26 ERA after his eye-opening debut at Dodger Stadium and a hamstring strain kept him from pitching in September. Hicks ran out of gas in the middle of the summer, although it's hard to blame someone who had always been a reliever. Alex Cobb never threw a pitch for the Giants in 2024.

The front office built the season around a pitching puzzle that never fell into place. Young options like Black and Teng were supposed to help keep the season on track until Ray and Cobb returned, and Snell was supposed to dominate throughout. With the exception of a good weekend against the lowly Colorado Rockies in late July, the rotation never really gelled. 

Prospect to watch: Carson Whisenhunt

With all of the 2024 promotions, the Giants are extremely light on high-end pitching prospects still in the minors, but the guy who spent all year in Triple-A is thought to have as high a ceiling as just about anyone who debuted this past season. 

Coming into the season, Whisenhunt was behind only Harrison on prospect lists, but a foot injury in July cost him more than a month and kept him from being in the mix when the team needed depth in September. The lefty finished with a 5.42 ERA in 25 Triple-A starts, but Giants officials aren't at all concerned by that number. A lot of the PCL resembles Coors Field and Whisenhunt had a 2.34 ERA in Sacramento, where the ballpark is more neutral. The changeup is big league-ready and helped him strike out 11.6 batters per nine innings. 

Potential free-agent targets

The best pitcher on the market is the one who will opt out of his Giants deal in a few days, but we'll get to Snell in a moment. 

Corbin Burnes is a St. Mary's product who is coming off another strong year and would be a great fit alongside Webb. Max Fried is the other potential ace available this offseason. 

Depending on opt-outs, the rest of the class could be highlighted by Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, old friend Sean Manaea, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber, who is recovering from Tommy John. If 23-year-old Japanese star Roki Sasaki is posted, the Giants will be heavily involved. 

The big offseason question: Will the Giants try to bring Snell back?

There weren't many inside the organization this season who expected Snell to return, although the calculus has certainly changed a bit now that Posey is in charge. What nobody knows, though, is how much it has changed. Zaidi didn't like long-term deals for older pitchers, but he also worked for an ownership group that has avoided them since the Cueto-Samardzija offseason. 

Snell will turn 32 in December and there are still real questions about how much of a workload he can handle on a year-to-year basis. He said in September that the pitcher the Giants saw in the second half -- one who repeatedly pushed past 100 pitches -- is the one that will show up after he gets his long-term deal, but the season began and ended with clear reminders that he does things at his own pace. 

Posey personally made sure Matt Chapman avoided free agency, but Snell will hit the open market and chase the massive long-term deal that wasn't there last offseason. He's confident it will be on the table this time around, and he also plans to sign before the start of the spring this time. 

Assuming Ray does not also opt out, the Giants will go into the offseason with Webb, Ray, Hicks, Harrison and Birdsong as their starting five, with solid young depth behind them. There are bigger holes elsewhere on the roster, and it seems likely that they'll let Snell walk and focus on upgrading the lineup.

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