SAN FRANCISCO -- In late February, Alex Cobb stood by his locker at Scottsdale Stadium and scanned the room. The Giants had not even signed Blake Snell yet, but as Cobb looked around and saw a mix of veteran starters and prospects with big arms, he lit up. Cobb talked excitedly about how the pressure would be on what looked to be a loaded rotation, and that's just the way he wanted it.
At the time, Cobb was feeling so strong in his rehab from hip surgery that teammates started to think he might be back in early April. Ninety-seven games later, Cobb has yet to throw a pitch in a big league game, although he's getting very close.
The first half did not at all go the way the Giants expected, but as they kick things off again Friday night in Denver, they are once again hoping to lean on those positive vibes that they felt in February. A rotation that included just two pitchers at one low point in the first half should finally be whole by the end of this month. Robbie Ray could be back as early as next week and Cobb is on track to return right around the July 30 trade deadline.
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"I think the entire team feels that we are primed to bust out after the All-Star break when we know what the rotation looks like," pitching coach Bryan Price said Sunday on "Giants Postgame Live." "We know that we'll have five healthy guys, we know we'll have guys that are continuing to develop in Triple-A that can give us some support if we need it. Potentially, we have the ability to kind of decrease the workload on the bullpen, which would be huge.
"If we could have the bullpen have a little bit lower of a workload and that they could be pitching more rested, I think we could anticipate having them strong through the finish of the season."
This Giants team was built on strong pitching, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi trading for one former Cy Young Award winner (Ray) and signing another one (Snell) in the offseason. But in the first half, the Giants ranked in the bottom third of the majors in overall ERA and 23rd in starters' ERA (4.49). Even with the NL innings leader pacing the group, they rank dead last in innings from their rotation.
Zaidi heard the complaints from fans in previous seasons when the staff relied heavily on openers and bullpen games. He doesn't necessarily fully agree with them -- the Giants are above .500 in bullpen games this year despite being under overall -- but he put together a more traditional group over the winter. For a number of reasons, it hasn't panned out.
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Snell was the biggest disappointment, posting a 6.31 ERA in eight starts and twice hitting the IL with an adductor strain. But those two stints came with a silver lining. In an odd way, through four rehab starts in Triple-A and one in A-ball, Snell put together a different type of spring training.
He felt rushed at the start of the year after signing late, but this month, he has finally looked like the reigning Cy Young Award winner. In two starts on the last homestand, Snell allowed just two hits over 12 innings.
Even with the high ERA, most of Snell's peripherals are in line with last season's statistics, and he always has been a second-half pitcher. More than any Giant, he looks primed for a huge finishing kick, and he potentially has millions on the line. If he keeps pitching like he did last Sunday, when he faced the minimum over seven innings, Snell will have a better argument for opting out of his contract and taking another crack at free agency.
Ray also can opt out, although, with $50 million guaranteed the next two years and a fresh scar on his pitching elbow, the 32-year-old would have a more difficult time doing so. The Giants have been deliberate in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, never altering the timeline even as injuries piled up for others, and they feel good about where they have ended up.
Ray has made nine rehab appearances and got up to five innings the last time out. The stuff has been consistently crisp and he looks poised to hit the ground running. He could slide into the rotation next Wednesday or Thursday in Los Angeles. Elbow and shoulder soreness kept Cobb from coming back in the first half as expected, but he has felt strong in recent weeks and should return one turn after Ray makes his season debut.
The Giants expect to enter August with Logan Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb in some order. Given the recent injury issues for three of them, they won't be making any assumptions about what the next two months might look like, but on paper that's two Cy Young winners, a 2023 All-Star and a 2024 All-Star.
If all goes well, Zaidi, Bob Melvin and Price finally will get to give breathers to others. At the top of the list is another offseason addition, Jordan Hicks, who helped keep the Giants afloat before running out of gas. If the Giants make the postseason, it will be in large part because of Hicks' ability to dominate early on and then help hold the line when the rotation was patched together in June. He posted a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings before the break, but now it's time for the Giants to take a different course.
There have been no public hints about how the Giants will handle Hicks in the second half, but he already is 17 1/3 innings past his previous career-high. Whether he moves to the bullpen full-time, piggybacks with another starter, or just gets an extended break before returning to the rotation, the Giants will need to find a way to limit Hicks' workload.
"Obviously Bob and Bryan Price have been pretty careful with his innings and pitch counts in individual outings and probably erred on the side of caution, which I think has put a little bit more stress on our bullpen, but in the long run we think it's best for the team," Zaidi said. "We've said since we signed Jordan (that) when we get to the point that we have enough options in the rotation and where your innings count is really creeping up there, maybe we'll have a conversation about the role."
The Giants will have to have that conversation about two young pitchers, too. Kyle Harrison's ankle injury gave him a bit of a breather, but the 22-year-old is about three solid starts from reaching his previous career-high for innings in a season. Fellow 22-year-old Hayden Birdsong is 24 innings away from last year's total.
The conversation has changed for the front office, but in a way, this is what Zaidi expected. He wanted young pitchers to carry the load early before the veterans took over in the second half, and while initial options like Keaton Winn and Mason Black faltered, Birdsong was ready to step in.
The rest of the gap was made up by the bullpen, which is where the Giants now have their greatest concerns.
Tyler Rogers' next appearance will be his 50th and he leads the majors in games pitched. Ryan Walker is tied for second, and given the way Melvin handled Camilo Doval last Sunday, it's possible Walker is due for a new role even as the Giants try to find him additional rest. There are 29 pitchers in the NL who have made 40 appearances and Erik Miller and Taylor Rogers give the Giants four on that list. Doval's next appearance will be his 40th.
Melvin pushed the group hard in the first half, but he has talked often in recent weeks about how a different plan will be needed in the second half. The workloads are uncomfortable not just for the pitchers, but for a team that hopes to make the postseason and doesn't want to get there with an exhausted bullpen.
In an ideal world, the returning starters will allow someone like Hicks or Harrison to bolster the bullpen, allowing the relievers to rest a bit more. Hicks, a former closer, is a particularly obvious choice to join the late-innings mix down the stretch as the Giants make their push.
The Giants have a 25 percent chance of playing in October, per FanGraphs. It was an uninspiring first half, but in a mediocre National League, they are just three games out of a playoff spot and 3 1/2 games out of the second Wild Card position. That is ground they could make up quickly given that they have MLB's easiest schedule after the break.
The Giants open at Coors Field on Friday night against the last-place Colorado Rockies and welcome them to town the following weekend. In between is four games against a Los Angeles Dodgers team that is even more banged-up right now, and the following month includes games against the A's, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins.
The schedule has opened up right as they're about to start riding their projected rotation. Given some of the low points of the previous few months, the Giants really couldn't have asked for a better opportunity.
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