Warriors-Spurs: Breaking down first-round matchup and series prediction

Not until Wednesday night could the Warriors zero in on their first-round playoff opponent. They’re going to need every minute of preparation.

First off, they’re playing the Spurs, whose Gregg Popovich is the best coach going.

And second, they can’t be certain about Pop’s lineup when the series gets under way this weekend at Oracle Arena.

Four times the Warriors and Spurs met in the regular season, with the Warriors winning the first three by an average of 13.3 points per game. Each time, they had all four All-Stars in the starting lineup.

In the final meeting, March 19 in San Antonio, the Warriors took an 89-75 loss with Draymond Green as the only available All-Star. It was their lowest-scoring game of the season.

Here is where it’s gets interesting: San Antonio started a different lineup each time -- and not always out of necessity.

The constants were LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyle Anderson and Patty Mills.

Their partners in the first game: Pau Gasol and Danny Green. In the second game: Davis Bertans and Green. In the third game: Dejounte Murry and Bertans. In the fourth game: Green and Murray.

Popovich kept tinkering in an effort to solve the defending champs and never did. The Warriors likely will see a fifth lineup in Game 1 this weekend.

Here are the anticipated matchups:

POINT GUARD:
Quinn Cook vs. Dejounte Murray: Cook generally has played well, and occasionally spectacular, in replacing Stephen Curry over the past month. Murray, a rangy (6-5) combo guard being groomed to play the point, started 46 games this season, including the last 26 in a row. Expect a cross-match here, with Murray defending Warriors SG Klay Thompson and Cook sliding over to Spurs SG Patty Mills.

Edge: Even.

SHOOTING GUARD:
Klay Thompson vs. Patty Mills: Thompson is having his finest offensive season, and he torched the Spurs in the first two games, scoring 52 points on 67.7-percent shooting, including 71.4 percent from deep. That was against Green. Murray took over in the third game, and Thompson scored 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. (Curry was hurt in the opening minutes.) The Warriors kept Mills quiet this season, holding him to 8.3 ppg on 30.8-percent shooting.

Edge: Warriors by a substantial margin.

SMALL FORWARD:
Kevin Durant vs. Kyle Anderson: Anderson‘s season-high in scoring is 20 points, against the Warriors on Feb. 10. If he finds offense, the Spurs can stay in games. He’s long (6-9) but hasn’t a prayer of containing Durant, who torched him and all other defenders for 37 points on March 8. With Durant in more of a playmaking role, expect Anderson to get help. There will be traps. There will be double-teams. Pop will try to make Durant uncomfortable.

Edge: Warriors, by a considerable margin.

POWER FORWARD:
Draymond Green vs. LaMarcus Aldridge: This is the pivotal matchup of the series. Aldridge has been terrific this season, averaging 23.3 ppg. Though he has a substantial size advantage (6-11 to 6-7), Green historically has done a solid job of containment. The Warriors will utilize three or four different defenders, giving Aldridge different looks. Expect the Spurs to give Green room to shoot from deep. That’s Pop’s MO. If Green can exploit that, the Spurs are in deep trouble.

Edge: Even.

CENTER:
Zaza Pachulia/JaVale McGee vs. Pau Gasol: It’s possible Aldridge could start here, but it’s also conceivable the Spurs turn to Gasol in hopes giving San Antonio a rebounding advantage. If so, his height will cause problems on offense. The Warriors would gladly take his defense, though, as they would pick-and-roll him back to the bench. The Warriors have what amounts to a starting center rotation, but either Pachulia or McGee would start of the Spurs go big.

Edge: Even.

BENCH:
WARRIORS: The key here is the health of Andre Iguodala, who missed six of the last seven regular-season games with left knee tendinitis. If he’s effective, the Warriors get huge boost. David West, Shaun Livingston and Kevon Looney are consistent and smart and can do damage on offense. The wild card is Nick Young. If he rains a few triples, the Warriors might dance in the streets.

SPURS: They still lean on vets Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and while both are well past their primes they can be effective in spurts. Another vet, Rudy Gay, was fabulous down the stretch, averaging 15 ppg over the final six games on 56.1-percent shooting. Youngsters Davis Bertans (SF) and Bryn Forbes (SG).

Edge: Even, if Iguodala is healthy.

PREDICTION: Warriors in 5.