Predicting where Warriors will finish in rugged Western Conference

After sinking a bit lower in the Western Conference in each of the past three NBA seasons, from third place to sixth to 10th, the Warriors believe they improved over the offseason and, therefore, are primed to climb.

One glance at the depth within the conference, however, offers a sobering rebuttal. Being better might not result in a higher finish.

The West remains as top-heavy as it was last season, but second and third tiers are even deeper. The gap between fourth place and 12th has narrowed.

Of the 15 teams in the West, only rebuilding franchises in Portland and Utah can be ignored in serious postseason conversation. The San Antonio Spurs, also rebuilding, could chase a NBA Play-In Tournament berth. The other 12 teams will fight to secure one of the six guaranteed berths or, at least, one of four Play-In slots.

The Western Conference was the primary topic this week on NBC Sports Bay Area’s "Dubs Talk" podcast. There were so many variables that a planned 30-minute conversation with our guest, national NBA writer Sam Amick of The Athletic, stretched to an hour.

The top three teams are, on paper, firm. The Oklahoma City Thunder was the No. 1 seed last season and got better by adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Denver Nuggets, who finished second last season, should dip after losing two-way guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Minnesota Timberwolves finished third and project to finish no lower.

Fourth place, assuring homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, looks to be where the defending conference champion Dallas Mavericks should land.

“I think Dallas is there,” Amick said of the roster bolstered by the acquisition of ex-Warrior Klay Thompson. “I certainly don’t have the Lakers there. Phoenix is going to be good; I do think that more time together should help them, but (its) roster is so imbalanced. So, I probably go OKC, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas.”

The remaining two guaranteed playoff berths will be chased by the Phoenix Suns, the New Orleans Pelicans, the rising Houston Rockets, the recovering Memphis Grizzlies – and Northern California rivals the Warriors and Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento finished ninth last season, with Golden State 10th. The Kings won their Play-In matchup, sending Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson walking a summer without playoffs for the first time ever.

The Warriors, we believe, are slightly improved. Buddy Hield will need an adjustment period but has the potential to replace the shooting formerly provided by Thompson. Kyle Anderson offers two-way versatility off the bench. De’Anthony Melton will help the defense and contribute to the offense.

If Curry is typically proficient, Green is atypically available and Gary Payton II is healthy, the Warriors have top-eight potential. If incoming assistant coaches Terry Stotts (offense) and Jerry Stackhouse (defense) can make positive impacts, Golden State might even vault into the top six.

A lot of “ifs,” to be sure, but can be said of most of these teams.

“The thing that people I think forget about is how good the Warriors were in the second half,” Amick said, referring to Golden State’s 27-12 record over its final 39 games.

Golden State’s rousing regular-season finish was torched by the Kings in the Play-In game at Golden 1 Center. Sacramento went ahead after three minutes and stayed in front for a 118-94 rout. Those Kings were good.

The new Kings could be better. The addition of five-time All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan, at the expense of Harrison Barnes, provides them another verified closer to pair with De’Aaron Fox. Malik Monk, a bolt of lightning off the bench, opted to re-sign and make another run at Sixth Man of the Year.

Kings or Warriors? Who finishes higher? I say Warriors. Amick disagrees.

“I'm going to give it to the Kings,” he said. “I'm going for the more known commodity. I trust Fox and (Domantas) Sabonis and Keegan (Murray) and Monk. I know what they are. If they're healthy they're really good. And I'm a big thumbs-up on DeRozan as well.

“And as great and amazing as Steph is, he's got to have the help. Around him right now, it's a bunch of question marks where maybe the answers come, and we have a fascinating chat six months from now where they're really figuring it out. And that is possible. It’s the NBA. Crazy stuff happens.”

Aside from the top three and bottom three, there will be “crazy stuff” in the West. The Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are the only sure drop from the top six. They could be fighting for a Play-In berth. After that, it’s a scrum.

The Suns will again be built around Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant – three All-Stars – and not much else. Can Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, stellar backup point guards, combine to stabilize the position that was a glaring weak spot last season?

The Los Angeles Lakers? How long can LeBron James, who turns 40 in December, defy the aging process? This could be the year LA’s imposing duo, Anthony Davis and James, misses another bundle of games. They missed a combined 17 last season, their lowest total since becoming teammates in 2019.

“I'm curious to see the JJ Reddick impact and how that part goes,” Amick said, referring to the first-time head coach. “Because as much as Darvin Ham took a lot of criticism, Darvin got them to the West Finals the year before. Darvin just ended up losing the support of the star players and JJ has that now.”

The Pelicans now have four proven scorers: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson. Yet Zion’s availability will determine their ceiling.

The Grizzlies, coming off a wretched (27-55) season, will be boosted by the returns of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and a full season from Desmond Bane. The trio missed a combined 177 games last season.

The Rockets? Even with talented center Alperen Șengun sidelined, they made a run late last season. They should tick upward and be at least good enough to make more established teams sweat.

Buckle up. There will be blood in the West. Will the Warriors be equipped to cause more than they lose? Know that they won’t settle. Not on CEO Joe Lacob’s watch. Not with Curry peering through a magnifying glass over the entire operation.

If the Warriors are in the middle of the standings at the halfway point – they should be at least that high – they’re certain to pursue a deal before the trade deadline.

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