49ers' trade for McCaffrey comes with plenty of risks

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On 49ers Talk, Matt Maiocco and Carlos Ramirez break down the “dynamic move” of trading for running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.

The 49ers on Thursday night added one of the most exciting running backs in the NFL to an offense that was the main reason the club could only split its first six games of the season.

The most interesting team in the NFL got even more fascinating entering Week 7 of the season.

But sending four draft picks to the Carolina Panthers for versatile running back Christian McCaffrey comes with plenty of risks, too.

McCaffrey comes to the 49ers with a recent history of injuries and high price tags, both in compensation sent to the Panthers and big salaries scheduled to kick in next year.

The 49ers reportedly outbid the Los Angeles Rams to acquire McCaffrey. The Rams have been aggressive in recent seasons with trades to acquire Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller.

Those moves paid off with a Super Bowl championship last season. General manager Les Snead famously showed up for the parade wearing a T-shirt that read, “F— them picks.”

After all, the Rams have not selected in the first round of a draft since 2016, and they currently don’t have a first-round selection until 2024.

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The acquisition of McCaffrey does not necessarily mean the 49ers are pushing all their chips into the middle of the table for a championship run this season -- and only this season.

However, there is no denying the move demonstrates a sense of urgency to get over the top after two trips to the NFC Championship Game and one Super Bowl appearance over the previous three seasons.

McCaffrey is under contract to the 49ers through 2025. If all goes according to plan, he will not only give quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo another asset this season, he will also team up with Trey Lance in the future.

The first risk for the 49ers in acquiring McCaffrey is an all-too-familiar concern for this organization in recent years.

McCaffrey missed 23 games during the 2020 and ’21 seasons due to sprains of both ankles, a shoulder sprain, and tight and hamstring strains.

There are also the financial ramifications the 49ers will have to address down the road.

The 49ers will pay McCaffrey only $690,000 for the remainder of this season. Over the next three seasons, he is on the books to earn non-guaranteed figures of $12 million, $12 million and $12.2 million.

The 49ers already have some of the highest-paid players in the league at their respective positions, such as left tackle Trent Williams, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, defensive lineman Arik Armstead, linebacker Fred Warner and cornerback Charvarius Ward.

Next year, the 49ers figure to make defensive end Nick Bosa the highest-paid player on the team.

Running back has not been considered a problem with the 49ers. The organization manages to identify and develop young, inexpensive players on an annual basis.

Under coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers inherited running back Carlos Hyde for the 2017 season, and he led the team in rushing. Since then, the 49ers’ leading rushers have been Matt Breida (undrafted), Raheem Mostert (undrafted), Jeff Wilson (undrafted) and Elijah Mitchell (sixth-round pick).

The 49ers signaled a shift in philosophy over the past two drafts. The club invested third-round picks in back-to-back years in Trey Sermon and, this year, Ty Davis-Price. The 49ers released Sermon at the end of training camp this summer.

And, now, the club parts ways with four draft picks to acquire McCaffrey. The 49ers sent second-, third- and fourth-round selections in 2023, as well as a 2024 fifth-rounder, to the Panthers for McCaffrey.

The 49ers already did not have their first-round selection next year because of the deal that enabled them to move up to No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Lance.

The 49ers picked up two third-round picks in 2023 as compensation for developing minority coaches Robert Saleh and Mike McDaniel, as well as Washington general manager Martin Mayhew.

The 49ers still have five scheduled draft picks for 2023. Those selections take on additional importance because of the team’s top-heavy payroll.

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Over the next two seasons, the Panthers will absorb approximately $27 million in bonuses already paid to McCaffrey. The 49ers can easily restructure McCaffrey’s contract in the coming seasons to create cap space.

The 49ers can remain competitive well beyond this season because of their solid nucleus or proven, well-compensated, veteran players.

Now, more than ever, they will need a steady flow of young, reliable players on relatively inexpensive rookie contracts to fill in the gaps of their roster.

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