Nick Bosa has established himself as one of the NFL's best defensive ends, but how will the 49ers star fare this season when it comes to the one stat fans will be talking about?
If the Faithful trust ESPN's projected sack model, Bosa is set to improve in the backfield during the 2024 NFL season.
The statistical model forecasts season sack totals for veteran pass rushers, basing the number on each player's past performance and their situation entering the campaign. This year, Bosa's projected total is 11.4 sacks -- up from the 10.5 he tallied during the 2023 season.
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Bosa comes in at No. 3 on the ESPN model's list of top projected sack leaders, behind Dallas Cowboys star Micah Parsons and the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, who both are predicted to sack the quarterback 13.6 times in 2024.
"Bosa is a contrast to the two players at the top of this list, as [he] has never flourished in pass rush win rate the way Parsons and Garrett have -- his 18 percent figure ranked 26th among players at all positions last season," ESPN analytics expert Seth Walder wrote. "But Bosa compiled 18.5 sacks in 2022 and is playing on one of the best teams in football, which works in his favor. However, San Francisco has the least favorable opposing QB schedule in the league when it comes to times sacked, which hinders Bosa's forecast."
The model certainly is to be taken with a grain of salt, however, as Bosa's 2023 numbers didn't quite align with last season's projection. The same model last year said the 49ers defender would end the 2023 campaign with 13.1 sacks -- over two more than he ultimately had.
But Bosa himself admitted his performance last season got off to a slower-than-usual start after he held out of training camp before signing a five-year, $170 million contract extension two days before the regular-season opener. He grabbed just 2.5 sacks across San Francisco's first seven games in 2023, which was a far cry from his 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year pace.
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With a full training camp under Bosa's belt this summer, the ESPN model projects the pass rusher will be better for it, but not quite back to his DPOY numbers. And with injuries to fellow 49ers defensive ends Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, San Francisco has to be hoping Bosa is his typical dominant self in 2024.
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