49ers vs. Chiefs predictions: NFL experts pick Super Bowl 58 winner

The 49ers are one win away from securing the franchise's sixth Vince Lombardi.

A matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium is the only thing standing in the way of San Francisco snapping its 29-year championship drought.

The 49ers enter Super Bowl LVIII as a slight favorite over the Chiefs, a reverse of when these two teams squared off four years ago in Super Bowl LIV.

Here's how NFL experts believe Sunday's epic Super Bowl showdown will unfold.

ESPN Experts

Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Chiefs 24, 49ers 21
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24
Rex Ryan, NFL analyst: Chiefs 31, 49ers 24
Robert Griffin III, NFL analyst: Chiefs 31, 49ers 21
Sal Paolantonio, national NFL reporter: Chiefs 30, 49ers 20
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: Chiefs 30, 49ers 21
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24
Seth Walder, analytics writer: 49ers 26, Chiefs 24
Seth Wickersham, senior writer: 49ers 20, Chiefs 19
Jamison Hensley, Ravens reporter: 49ers 31, Chiefs 17
Todd Archer, Cowboys reporter: 49ers 28, Chiefs 26
Tim Keown, senior writer: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24

NFL.com Experts

Lance Zierlein: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24

Why: The additional week of preparation serves as a big advantage for San Francisco, as it could cool down a hot Chiefs team and give more time for Deebo Samuel to heal. I see this being a close one, with the 49ers' pass rush becoming a major factor late in the game. Kyle Shanahan shakes off past Super Bowl losses and finally gets his ring.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Christian McCaffrey
Bold prediction: Nick Bosa will finish with three sacks and be in the running for game MVP.

Marc Sessler: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24

Why: I'll pull from my September prediction: Kyle Shanahan's winding quest to lift the Lombardi crescendos on a February night in Las Vegas, as Brock Purdy tilts Kansas City's defense for three scores and 400-plus yards. The play of the game, though, is San Francisco's 77-yard pick-six of Patrick Mahomes that seals the deal with seconds to go in the final frame.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Brock Purdy.
Bold prediction: Travis Kelce retires within 48 hours after the Chiefs fizzle out

Jeffri Chadiha: Chiefs 23, 49ers 21

Why: The Chiefs' defense contains the 49ers' explosive offense, while Patrick Mahomes makes just enough plays to turn his team into a dynasty.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Isiah Pacheco.
Bold prediction: Mahomes throws for fewer than 200 yards in a Super Bowl win for the second straight year.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24

Why: While the Chiefs' defense and offensive supporting cast play instrumental roles Sunday, Patrick Mahomes once again works his on-field magic to win the franchise its third Lombardi in the past five years and further cement his legacy as one of the NFL’s greatest.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
Bold prediction: Rashee Rice has a career performance with 140 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Albert Breer, Sports Illustrated

Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 27

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

For me, Super Bowl XLIX was the point where I stopped picking against Tom Brady. The New England Patriots’ drought of 10 Super Bowls had come to an end. He’d erased the Seattle Seahawks’ dominance in the first two-and-a-half quarters of the game. And he did it against a generational defense. That, by the way, was Brady’s 15th season as a pro. I’ve arrived at the point quicker with Mahomes—in the AFC title game, I picked the Baltimore Ravens, even if I was leery of how Mahomes’s ability as an eraser, similar to Brady’s, would put that pick in peril. Sure enough, Kansas City’s quarterback took control early in the game, forcing a tone and tenor that took Baltimore (the team, not just the defense) out of its element.

Three hours later Mahomes was hoisting his fourth Lamar Hunt Trophy. So I could give you the reasons the Niners should win, and there are a lot of them. But I can’t get the lingering thought out of my head that even if San Francisco plays great, Mahomes can, and probably will, find a way to erase it in the end. Sort of like he did the last time these two met on the game’s biggest stage.

Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated

San Francisco 49ers 37, Kansas City Chiefs 24

MVP: Deebo Samuel

The Chiefs are the best tackling secondary in the NFL ... but what if they weren’t for one day? Imagine the 49ers come into this game with an edge after a week of miserable practice conditions and simply pound the Chiefs in a way we haven’t seen all year. These games always hinge on a bit of well-timed physicality, and they also reject some of the narratives we build up over the course of the playoffs. Right now, San Francisco looks vulnerable and somewhat soft. Right now, the Chiefs look unbreakable on defense. All of that can change in an instant. And it will Sunday.

Ben Solak, The Ringer

Chiefs 23, 49ers 10

MVP: Isiah Pacheco

This is going to be a low-scoring, run-heavy, and largely boring game. Sorry, friends! I know fireworks are the desired entertainment of a Super Bowl party, but both offenses will be heavily incentivized to run the ball in this game to stay out of third-and-long and avoid negative game scripts.

While the 49ers have come back in both of their postseason wins, they don’t want to face constant pressure packages from Spagnuolo; the Chiefs, a far cry from the explosive passing offense they once were, don’t want that 49ers pass rush teeing off without a check. I like Pacheco to be the engine of a methodical, suffocating Chiefs win: 22 carries, 120 yards, and two scores.

Skip Bayless, Fox Sports

Chiefs 24, 49ers 22

Patrick Mahomes will not make a single mistake. No interceptions, no sack-fumbles. I believe Brock Purdy will throw two interceptions, and they will cost San Francisco a close game.

It's as simple as that to me. You're telling me that Patrick Mahomes will have a chip on his shoulder pads, as a 2.5-point underdog? Give me the Chiefs.

Download and follow the 49ers Talk Podcast